March footfall commentary

ATCM - Springboard
National High Street Index

March 2009 Commentary
   
 
 
With an annual decline in footfall of just -0.2% in the UK's high streets during March - the smallest degree of annual decline in footfall reported in any month since May 2008 - the question of whether things have bottomed out must be asked, or at the very least whether consumers have become accustomed to the new reality and are now returning to the high street. At the very least it demonstrates that whilst household disposable spending is restricted - as illustrated by the 1.2% fall in retail sales reported by the BRC for March - the social interaction offered by town centres is a powerful magnet for consumers, reinforcing their role as the heart of local communities.

What is also significant - and which reflects the increasing success of our larger cities - is that for the first month since September 2007 there was a positive annual change in footfall of +0.3% in regional cities during March.
 
   The trough for both towns and cities generally, and for regional cities, was in September 2008, when both experienced the greatest annual decline in footfall since the Index began. The differentiating factor, however, is that while in regional cities the annual decline in footfall diminished steadily from September onwards, in towns and cities generally across the UK a reversal of decline to any degree has not been noticeable until now.

The key question of course, is whether this is signalling the start of a recovery for our town centres, or whether it is a relatively bright spot on an otherwise dark trading landscape. And whilst not part of the March reporting period, perhaps we can look to footfall over Easter in our towns and cities as an initial indicator. 
 
 
Over the four day Easter weekend, footfall in our high streets was 1.2% higher this year than during the 2008 Easter weekend. However, we do need to be aware that the peculiarities of the calendar meant that Easter last year fell in March, rather than in April, when the weather was particularly poor. Hence the 1.2% increase in footfall over this weekend represents a modest uplift from an unusually low base.
 
 
All Towns and Cities   Regional Cities
Annual Change:     Annual Change:  
Mar 08 to Mar 09  -0.2%   Mar 08 to Mar 09  0.3%
Feb 08 to Feb 09  -7.8%   Feb 08 to Feb 09  -0.9%
Jan 08 to Jan 09 -8.0%   Jan 08 to Jan 09 -3.6%
         
Month on month change:     Month on month change:   
Feb to Mar 09 3.8%   Feb to Mar 09 0.1%
Feb to Mar 08 -4.0%   Feb to Mar 08 -4.9%
Jan to Feb 09 10.3%   Jan to Feb 09 12.7%
Jan to Feb 08 11.0%   Jan to Feb 08 8.2%
Dec 08 to Jan 09 -32.0%   Dec 08 to Jan 09 -36.2%
Dec 07 to Jan 08  -34.9%   Dec 07 to Jan 08  -36.7% 
          
 
 
 

ATCM - Springboard
National High Street Index

March 2009 Commentary
   
 
 
With an annual decline in footfall of just -0.2% in the UK's high streets during March - the smallest degree of annual decline in footfall reported in any month since May 2008 - the question of whether things have bottomed out must be asked, or at the very least whether consumers have become accustomed to the new reality and are now returning to the high street. At the very least it demonstrates that whilst household disposable spending is restricted - as illustrated by the 1.2% fall in retail sales reported by the BRC for March - the social interaction offered by town centres is a powerful magnet for consumers, reinforcing their role as the heart of local communities.

What is also significant - and which reflects the increasing success of our larger cities - is that for the first month since September 2007 there was a positive annual change in footfall of +0.3% in regional cities during March.
 
   The trough for both towns and cities generally, and for regional cities, was in September 2008, when both experienced the greatest annual decline in footfall since the Index began. The differentiating factor, however, is that while in regional cities the annual decline in footfall diminished steadily from September onwards, in towns and cities generally across the UK a reversal of decline to any degree has not been noticeable until now.

The key question of course, is whether this is signalling the start of a recovery for our town centres, or whether it is a relatively bright spot on an otherwise dark trading landscape. And whilst not part of the March reporting period, perhaps we can look to footfall over Easter in our towns and cities as an initial indicator. 
 
 
Over the four day Easter weekend, footfall in our high streets was 1.2% higher this year than during the 2008 Easter weekend. However, we do need to be aware that the peculiarities of the calendar meant that Easter last year fell in March, rather than in April, when the weather was particularly poor. Hence the 1.2% increase in footfall over this weekend represents a modest uplift from an unusually low base.
 
 
All Towns and Cities   Regional Cities
Annual Change:     Annual Change:  
Mar 08 to Mar 09  -0.2%   Mar 08 to Mar 09  0.3%
Feb 08 to Feb 09  -7.8%   Feb 08 to Feb 09  -0.9%
Jan 08 to Jan 09 -8.0%   Jan 08 to Jan 09 -3.6%
         
Month on month change:     Month on month change:   
Feb to Mar 09 3.8%   Feb to Mar 09 0.1%
Feb to Mar 08 -4.0%   Feb to Mar 08 -4.9%
Jan to Feb 09 10.3%   Jan to Feb 09 12.7%
Jan to Feb 08 11.0%   Jan to Feb 08 8.2%
Dec 08 to Jan 09 -32.0%   Dec 08 to Jan 09 -36.2%
Dec 07 to Jan 08  -34.9%   Dec 07 to Jan 08  -36.7%